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Opinion & Analysis
When Should NFL Teams Go For It on 4th Down? - Expected Points vs CVAR

For answering the question "When should teams go for it on 4th down?", we do not believe that expected points alone is the best KPI (Key Performance Indicator). We believe that coaches should make an expected point maximizing decision for a given CVAR25% constraint, or put another way, make a point maximizing decision for how much they are willing to risk. Ultimately, we believe that "going for it" it is scenario specific and that NFL coaches are not overly conservative, but rather, appropriately conservative in their decision making.